The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has recently updated its forecast regarding the possibility of El Ni&ntilde;o occurring in the country.&nbsp;
In a televised briefing on April 18, PAGASA Deputy Administrator Esperanza Cayanan announced that there is now an 80% chance of El Ni&ntilde;o developing between June and August, an increase from the previous forecast of 55% last month.
Cayanan further mentioned that PAGASA may upgrade its advisory from "El Ni&ntilde;o Watch" to "El Ni&ntilde;o Alert" in May, as the probability of El Ni&ntilde;o occurring during the June-August period has significantly increased.&nbsp;
"So from El Ni&ntilde;o watch, by next month, May, we will be issuing the second level which is El Ni&ntilde;o alert kung saan mayroon po tayong above 70 percent probability of El Ni&ntilde;o occurrence for the next two months," Cayanan said.
She also noted that the likelihood of El Ni&ntilde;o occurring from November-December 2023 to January 2024 has risen to 86 percent.
Ondoy-like typhoon
The PAGASA official also explained that before the country experiences the effects of El Ni&ntilde;o, there will still be a rainy season associated with the southwest monsoon or 'habagat'&nbsp;season.&nbsp;
She cited previous experiences, such as the extreme rainfall events during Typhoon Ondoy in 2009, which coincided with the El Ni&ntilde;o phenomenon in 2009-2010.&nbsp;
"From previous experience po natin, puwede po tayong maka-experience ng extreme rainfall event kagaya po ng isang example noong Ondoy noong 2009 wherein nagkaroon po kasi tayo ng El Ni&ntilde;o 2009, 2010. Pero bago natin naramdaman iyong kakulangan sa tubig, naka-experience po tayo ng extreme [rainfall] events," she said.
This suggests that extreme rainfall events may still occur before the impact of water shortage due to El Ni&ntilde;o is felt.
PAGASA's rainfall forecast indicates that May is expected to have near-normal rainfall throughout the country. In June, most parts of the country will have near-normal rainfall, except for the western section of Central Luzon where above-normal rainfall may prevail.&nbsp;
July is likely to have a 'high probability' of near-normal rainfall in most parts of the country, and in August, most parts of the country are expected to have near-normal rainfall, with some areas in western Luzon likely to receive above-normal rainfall and patches of below-normal rainfall in Visayas and Mindanao.

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PAGASA: El Niño to increase by June; PH might experience Ondoy-like typhoon before dry season