The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has recently updated its forecast regarding the possibility of El Niño occurring in the country.
In a televised briefing on April 18, PAGASA Deputy Administrator Esperanza Cayanan announced that there is now an 80% chance of El Niño developing between June and August, an increase from the previous forecast of 55% last month.
Cayanan further mentioned that PAGASA may upgrade its advisory from "El Niño Watch" to "El Niño Alert" in May, as the probability of El Niño occurring during the June-August period has significantly increased.
"So from El Niño watch, by next month, May, we will be issuing the second level which is El Niño alert kung saan mayroon po tayong above 70 percent probability of El Niño occurrence for the next two months," Cayanan said.
She also noted that the likelihood of El Niño occurring from November-December 2023 to January 2024 has risen to 86 percent.
Ondoy-like typhoon
The PAGASA official also explained that before the country experiences the effects of El Niño, there will still be a rainy season associated with the southwest monsoon or 'habagat' season.
She cited previous experiences, such as the extreme rainfall events during Typhoon Ondoy in 2009, which coincided with the El Niño phenomenon in 2009-2010.
"From previous experience po natin, puwede po tayong maka-experience ng extreme rainfall event kagaya po ng isang example noong Ondoy noong 2009 wherein nagkaroon po kasi tayo ng El Niño 2009, 2010. Pero bago natin naramdaman iyong kakulangan sa tubig, naka-experience po tayo ng extreme [rainfall] events," she said.
This suggests that extreme rainfall events may still occur before the impact of water shortage due to El Niño is felt.
PAGASA's rainfall forecast indicates that May is expected to have near-normal rainfall throughout the country. In June, most parts of the country will have near-normal rainfall, except for the western section of Central Luzon where above-normal rainfall may prevail.
July is likely to have a 'high probability' of near-normal rainfall in most parts of the country, and in August, most parts of the country are expected to have near-normal rainfall, with some areas in western Luzon likely to receive above-normal rainfall and patches of below-normal rainfall in Visayas and Mindanao.
