The Department of Health (DOH) on Thursday warned of a possible COVID-19 spike in mid-May if Filipinos continue to neglect minimum public health standards (MPHS).
In a statement, the DOH cited projections that forecast up to 300,000 active cases by mid-May nationwide if compliance to MPHS drops by 30%.
"This figure is higher than the largest recorded number of active cases at 291,618 during the peak of the Omicron wave in January 2022," it said.
In the National Capital Region (NCR), projections showed that 25,000 to 60,000 new COVID-19 cases per day, with almost half a million cases by mid-May, is possible following a 50% decrease in MPHS compliance.
This is more than three times higher than the active cases during the Omicron wave's peak, according to the DOH.
The warning came after Filipinos have been noted to less comply to the MPHS during March and April, with -7% nationwide and -12% in the NCR.
An improved compliance to MPHS could see active cases nationwide plunge to 1,293 to 16,934 by mid-May, according to the DOH.
"Unless those in NCR improve their compliance with MPHS, the capital could still see an increase in active cases even as other areas will see a decrease," it warned.
DOH attributed the forecast to the sub-Technical Working Group on Data Analytics and the Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance using Spatio-temporal Epidemiological Modeler for Early Detection of Diseases Team.
AuTuMN's projections
Meanwhile, another projection from the Australian Tuberculosis Modelling Network (AuTuMN) Team warned the possibility of NCR's health care system getting overwhelmed due to a new variant.
According to the projection, if a new variant two times more transmissible than Omicron, with the ability to escape immunity, enters the NCR, ICU admissions could see around 2,418. This is much higher than the 1,649 ICU beds for COVID-19 that had been available in Metro Manila throughout the pandemic.
"This can occur as early as mid-May 2022. This peak is 2.6 times higher than the 666 admissions last seen in January 2022, and 8.6 times higher than the current 253 admissions," said the DOH.
"This estimated ICU admission will fully occupy these ICU beds and potentially overwhelm our health systems and critical care capacities," it added.
According to DOH spokesperson Maria Rosario Vergeire, the estimates can still be avoided if Filipinos continue to observe MPHS in order to stamp out the transmission of COVID-19.
"Numbers do not lie. The good news is, at this point, these are all still projections. We can still avert these estimates in favor of better scenarios," said Vergeire in a statement.
"We can all do our part to help stop transmission and mutation of the virus if we are to keep wearing our best fitted masks, isolating when sick, doubling protection through vaccines and up to date boosters, and ensuring good airflow," she added. "These will go a long way to protect ourselves, our loved ones, and our entire community from the harm that is COVID-19."
The Philippines recently added 1,906 new COVID-19 cases from April 4 to 10, according to the DOH. The nationwide ICU bed utilization rate is at 18.4% or 542 out of 2,951 ICU beds used.
