Department of Finance (DOF) Sec. Ralph Recto expects the inflation rate to further slow down to 2.5 percent this September.
Recto made his prediction after the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) reported that the inflation rate went down from 4.4 percent in July to 3.3 percent in August.
"For September ang expectations natin is roughly 2.5. It’s a range between 2.5 to 2.9, the midpoint is roughly 2.5," Recto said on Tuesday, September 24, during a press briefing in Malacanang.
Recto believes that the reduced tariffs on rice imports helped bring down the inflation rate.
"Iyong tariff reduction, palagay ko nag-uumpisa na rin makatulong iyan but we expect that to further go down in the coming months, iyong reduction in tariff rates for rice particularly, so pababa na rin iyan," Recto said.
Last June, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed Executive Order No. 62 that brought down tariff rates on imported rice from 35 percent to 15 percent.
"I think one percent bumababa ang presyo nang kaunti and may lag effect iyan, it takes a few more months ‘no. When you reduce tariff, it takes a few more months before you can feel the entire effect. So, hopefully by, tamang-tama pagdating ng Pasko, medyo mas mababa na siguro ang presyo ng bigas," he stressed.
However, the DOF chief predicts that the inflation rate will rise in the last quarter of 2024 as the Christmas holidays approach.
"Normally, seasonal naman iyan. Tuwing fourth quarter tumaas nang kaunti pero like I said, we expect it to be within the target range of the BSP, of anywhere between 2 to 4 percent," Recto remarked.
"So, for the full year, we’re looking at the total inflation rate to be about 3.4 percent more or less," he added.
Recto also mentioned that 'external headwinds', particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, could also affect the inflation in the Philippines.
"Well, the biggest problem is iyong giyera sa Middle East, kung iyan ba lalaki iyong giyerang iyan ‘di ba. But since in September, you only have what? A week to go, sa palagay ko we’re on track with regard to the inflation target for September," Recto said.
