There is a possibility that the Omicron variant is already spreading in the country's borders, according to an OCTA Research fellow, as the country logs a growing number of COVID-19 cases as of late.
Independent pandemic monitoring group OCTA previously made the assessment that the recent uptick in cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may no longer be due to the holiday season as initially forecasted.
Dr. Guido David, in an interview with DZRH, said that the possibility of the Omicron variant already spreading in the Philippines cannot be ruled out.
"Ang masasabi ko ngayon, sa ngayon, may possibility na merong kumakalat na Omicron," he told DZRH on Wednesday.
(What I can say for now is there is a possibility of a spreading Omicron.)
"Hindi natin sinasabing sigurado tayo, sinasabi nating may possibility. Hindi natin ‘yan pwedeng ma-rule out itong possibility na 'to," he continued.
(We cannot say this for sure, but we can say there is a possibility. We cannot rule out that possibility.)
David's theory is rooted to the growing number of new COVID-19 infections reported in NCR and across the country, likening the speed of transmission to the pattern recorded in South Africa.
"Itong bilis ng dami ng mga kaso, or bilis ng mga hawaan, nakita natin to itong pattern na to sa South Africa," he explained.
(The speed of the increase, or the speed of the transmission, we saw this pattern in South Africa.)
"Ngayon naiintindihan ko na 'yung health experts natin, gusto nilang hintayin yung confirmation. Kunwari may Omicron nang kumakalat - magagawa natin 'yan through bio-surveillance and genome sequencing pero it will take two weeks to get confirmation," he added.
(Now I understand our health experts if they want to wait for confirmation. For example, if the Omicron variant is already spreading, it can only be seen through bio-surveillance and genome sequencing but it will take two weeks to get the confirmation.)
According to David, based on the speed of current COVID-19 transmission, it is possible that the new infections could rise back up to thousands in the following weeks.
"Again, possible scenario lang naman to. Pero 'yung bilis ng pagdoble … kung mamamaya makakakita tayo ng isang 1,000, baka next week nasa 4,000 na 'yan and in two weeks baka nasa 10,000 nanaman ulit yan. Ganun kabilis," he said.
(Again, this is just a possible scenario. But based on the speed of doubling … later if we see 1,000, maybe next week it could hit 4,000, and in two weeks it could be at 10,000 again. It’s that fast.)
The OCTA fellow stressed the need for a recalibration of some policies, especially on contact tracing and allowing children back in establishments.
"Kailangan talaga nating mag-recalibrate," he said.
(We really need to recalibrate.)
"'Yung contact racing parang non-existent na ngayon eh. … Chinecheck na lang 'yung vaccination card. Ngayon, mahalaga 'yung vaccination card - pag na-vaccinate, mataas yung level of protection natin pero pwede pa ring makapanghawa at pwedeng mahawaan ang mga bakunado kaya mahalaga pa rin ang contact tracing sana," he continued.
(Contact tracing seems non-existent now. … They only check for the vaccination cards. Now, the vaccination card is important. If vaccinated, there is a high level of protection, but vaccinated individuals could still transmit or get the disease. This is why contact tracing remains important.)
He also called for reconsideration on allowing children back inside establishments, given that a lot of them remain unvaccinated.
"'Yung pag-allow ng mga bata sa mga establishment ay sana pwede nating i-reconsider kahit hindi pa tayo nagbabalik sa mas mahigpit na alert level," he said.
(The permission to get kids inside establishments should be reconsidered even if we’re not yet back to stricter alert levels.)
"Kasi karamihan ng mga bata ay hindi pa bakunado at nakita natin sa mga ibang bansa medyo mataas yung incidence ng mga pediatric cases sa ngayon kesa sa mga nakaraan," he added.
(Because a lot of kids are not yet vaccinated and we can see in other countries that the incidence of pediatric cases is slightly higher now than before.)
The country has so far recorded four imported cases of the Omicron variant. New cases logged on Tuesday were at 421, bringing the national caseload to 2,839,111.
