By Elaine Lies
TOKYO (Reuters) -&nbsp;Japanese&nbsp;Prime&nbsp;Minister&nbsp;Fumio&nbsp;Kishida&nbsp;is thought increasingly likely to&nbsp;call&nbsp;a&nbsp;snap&nbsp;election, perhaps within days.
No&nbsp;election&nbsp;for the powerful lower house of parliament needs to be held until 2025, but&nbsp;Kishida&nbsp;is eager to solidify his grip on the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to ensure his victory in a party leadership race in September 2024 and extend his time as premier.
HOW MIGHT IT HAPPEN?
Japan's&nbsp;prime&nbsp;ministers often say they are dissolving parliament to take a policy question to voters, though it can also be in response to a no-confidence motion brought by the opposition.
The major opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is considering such a motion before the current parliamentary session ends on June 21, to oppose a bill aimed at securing funds to boost Japan's defence capabilities.
This could make it easier for&nbsp;Kishida&nbsp;to&nbsp;call&nbsp;a&nbsp;snap&nbsp;election&nbsp;because there are no pressing policy issues to rally voters.
HOW'S HIS POPULARITY?
Kishida's support surged after the&nbsp;May&nbsp;19-21 Group of Seven (G7) leaders' summit in Hiroshima, his home district - with a boost from the presence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy - and that strength is holding.
According to a recent poll by public broadcaster NHK, 43% of voters view him favourably compared with 46% right after the summit. In late 2022 his approval fell below 30%.
THE ECONOMY'S GOOD - FOR NOW
Japan's Nikkei stock average has roared to 33-year highs, powered by strong earnings and economic revival after the pandemic, with the economy expanding a stronger-than-expected 2.7% in the first quarter.
But worries about further price increases and the fate of the global economy loom large in the minds of senior LDP policymakers still scarred from a disastrous 2009&nbsp;election, in the midst of the global financial crisis, which put the opposition in power for several years.
WHAT ABOUT THE OPPOSITION?
Japan's opposition parties are fragmented and in disarray, and&nbsp;calling an&nbsp;election&nbsp;sooner could prevent the cooperative opposition alliances formed in many areas during last year's upper house&nbsp;election.
The LDP is worried about one group - the Japan Innovation Party - which, with its conservative bent, could siphon LDP votes after substantially increasing the number of seats it holds in April's local&nbsp;elections.&nbsp;Calling an&nbsp;election&nbsp;soon&nbsp;could shorten preparation time and keep them on the back foot.
WHAT ARE THE RISKS?
Kishida&nbsp;and the LDP could come under fire for&nbsp;calling the&nbsp;election&nbsp;because of the lack of pressing issues. Only 11% of voters thought an&nbsp;election&nbsp;should be held "promptly" and another 19% "within this year," according to the NHK poll.
Holding the&nbsp;election&nbsp;early could also backfire if any positive fades before the LDP leadership race more than a year from now.
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
(Reporting by Elaine Lies. Editing by Gerry Doyle; Editing by Chang-Ran Kim and Gerry Doyle)

you might like

Why Japanese Prime Minister Kishida may call a snap election soon