New COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) could go lower than 500 by Valentine's Day, according to OCTA Research, as its reproduction number sinks to 0.71.
There are 2,751 new cases of COVID-19 in the NCR on January 25, with the highest tallied in Quezon City with 648.
According to OCTA fellow Guido David, the current data in the NCR puts it at "high risk" for COVID-19, down from the previous "severe outbreak" classification.
This comes as the seven-day average cases from January 19 to 25 is only 6,280 - significantly lower than the 15,782 from January 12 to 18.
The one-week average daily attack rate is also at 44 and the seven-day positivity rate is at 24%.
The healthcare utilization rate and intensive care unit level are 48% and 44%, respectively, and are both classified under low risk.
David said that he is "expecting NCR to be at moderate risk next week."
