While the Mayon Volcano in Albay is projected to remain active, the risk of a severe eruption similar to Mount Pinatubo in 1991 is low, according to one of the country's top volcanologists.
The current activity detected from the volcano—including the glow from its crater, which is visible to the naked eye—does not even merit raising the warning level from 3 to 4, according to Paul Alanis of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology's Mayon Volcano Observatory.
He said that fresh magma was pushing the old lava dome, which was now obstructing the summit crater and causing higher levels of sulfur dioxide to be emitted than the baseline measurement.
In terms of eruption patterns, Alanis stated that Mayon Volcano's eruptions are more frequent than those of Mount Pinatubo in Zambales. He added that based on Mt. Mayon's current behavior, there is no reason to raise its alert level beyond the existing Alert Level 3.
According to the Phivolcs, rockfall events have accumulated lava material within 700 meters of the summit crater, resulting in thin ash and steam-laden plumes traveling southeast.
Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions were measured at an average of 1,205 tons per day, and pyroclastic density currents were seen.
Authorities warn of greater alertness in the face of threats like pyroclastic density currents, lahar, and sediment-laden streamflows, particularly during heavy rainfall, which can cause lahar in channels where volcanic deposits have accumulated.
Phivolcs urged civil aviation authorities to alert pilots to avoid flying near the volcano's top due to the potential hazards of ash from a quick eruption.
According to the prevailing wind pattern, ashfall occurrences are more likely to occur on the volcano's southern flank.
Phivolcs said that inflation has been recorded on the top slopes of Mayon Volcano since February 2023.
