By Greg Torode&nbsp;and&nbsp;Yew Lun Tian
HONG KONG (Reuters) -&nbsp;Amid&nbsp;intensifying&nbsp;military&nbsp;deployments&nbsp;across&nbsp;East&nbsp;Asia,&nbsp;high-level&nbsp;defence&nbsp;dialogue&nbsp;between&nbsp;China&nbsp;and&nbsp;the&nbsp;United&nbsp;States&nbsp;remains&nbsp;frozen.&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;Secretary&nbsp;of&nbsp;State&nbsp;Antony&nbsp;Blinken&nbsp;did&nbsp;not&nbsp;secure&nbsp;any&nbsp;progress&nbsp;on the&nbsp;issue&nbsp;during&nbsp;his&nbsp;visit&nbsp;to&nbsp;Beijing&nbsp;last&nbsp;week.&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;Defence&nbsp;Secretary&nbsp;Lloyd&nbsp;Austin&nbsp;attempted&nbsp;talks&nbsp;with&nbsp;China's&nbsp;Defence&nbsp;Minister&nbsp;Li&nbsp;Shangfu&nbsp;during&nbsp;a&nbsp;defence&nbsp;conference&nbsp;in&nbsp;Singapore&nbsp;this&nbsp;month, but&nbsp;did&nbsp;not&nbsp;get&nbsp;beyond&nbsp;a handshake.
WHAT IS THE SITUATION NOW?
General&nbsp;Li, appointed in March,&nbsp;remains&nbsp;sanctioned by the&nbsp;U.S. over&nbsp;his&nbsp;role in a 2017 weapons purchase from Russia's largest arms exporter, Rosoboronexport. Chinese officials have repeatedly said they want those sanctions, imposed in 2018, dropped to facilitate discussions.
Li&nbsp;and&nbsp;other senior officials also say they want signs from the&nbsp;U.S. of "mutual respect" - easing its patrolling&nbsp;and&nbsp;surveillance off&nbsp;China's coasts&nbsp;and&nbsp;an end to arms sales for Taiwan. Neither is about to happen.The tension predates&nbsp;Li's appointment, with&nbsp;Beijing's scrapping three avenues&nbsp;of&nbsp;military&nbsp;communication in August 2022 in protest of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's&nbsp;visit&nbsp;to Taiwan. This&nbsp;scuppered planned&nbsp;talks&nbsp;between&nbsp;theatre-level&nbsp;commands, regular&nbsp;defence&nbsp;policy co-ordination&nbsp;and&nbsp;military&nbsp;maritime consultations, which included operational safety issues.
A senior&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;defence&nbsp;official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that since 2021&nbsp;China&nbsp;had declined or&nbsp;not&nbsp;responded to more than a dozen requests to talk with the Pentagon&nbsp;and&nbsp;nearly 10 working-level&nbsp;engagement requests.
Regional countries are watching closely, with some leery of being drawn into a wider conflict or forced to choose&nbsp;between&nbsp;the superpowers.
Serving&nbsp;and&nbsp;retired&nbsp;military&nbsp;officers stress the importance of smooth communications&nbsp;beyond&nbsp;political leaders, given the dangers of operational miscalculations.
HOW DEEP IS THE FREEZE?
Significantly, it isn't total. Diplomats&nbsp;and&nbsp;Chinese analysts say&nbsp;military&nbsp;attaches at embassies&nbsp;Beijing&nbsp;and&nbsp;Washington are still able to meet officials - an important element of routine communication.
Operationally, routine&nbsp;military&nbsp;ship-to-ship&nbsp;and&nbsp;aircraft-to-aircraft communication still takes place&nbsp;and&nbsp;is, according to three diplomats familiar with the situation, often professional at a basic&nbsp;level. At moments of tension, however, it is more fraught.
Senior Chinese&nbsp;military&nbsp;intelligence officials also participated in a secret meeting of regional spies in&nbsp;Singapore&nbsp;earlier this&nbsp;month&nbsp;- a session that included&nbsp;U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.
WHAT ABOUT THE FUTURE?
Washington will still push for&nbsp;military&nbsp;dialogue&nbsp;- it is&nbsp;not&nbsp;a reward but a necessity,&nbsp;Austin&nbsp;said this&nbsp;month&nbsp;- but there is no sign the&nbsp;United&nbsp;States&nbsp;is about to drop sanctions on&nbsp;Li.&nbsp;And&nbsp;changes to&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;deployments&nbsp;to&nbsp;East&nbsp;Asia&nbsp;or a significant shift in its Taiwan posture are even more unlikely.
With&nbsp;Li&nbsp;set to serve a five-year term, some Chinese analysts say it will be impossible for the&nbsp;U.S. to foster&nbsp;talks&nbsp;with&nbsp;military&nbsp;officials above or below him.
"The&nbsp;U.S. sanction on&nbsp;Li&nbsp;is&nbsp;like a tiger that blocks the path," said Zhou Bo, a retired senior PLA colonel&nbsp;and&nbsp;a senior fellow at&nbsp;Beijing's Tsinghua University.
Senior Chinese foreign ministry official Yang Tao also&nbsp;highlighted the sanctions on&nbsp;Li&nbsp;this&nbsp;week, telling Reuters at a briefing that it was "one of the reasons we cannot&nbsp;have&nbsp;military-to-military&nbsp;exchanges. The&nbsp;U.S. needs to first remove this&nbsp;obstacle".
Some&nbsp;defence&nbsp;analysts say that in the short-term, routine discussions&nbsp;between&nbsp;theatre commanders would build confidence&nbsp;and&nbsp;ease tensions.
Another&nbsp;U.S. official said that the head of Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral John Aquilino, had a standing request to talk with&nbsp;his&nbsp;Chinese counterpart,&nbsp;Eastern Theatre commander General&nbsp;Lin Xiangyang, but that the conversation had&nbsp;not&nbsp;yet happened. The official said some lower-level&nbsp;interactions with the Chinese&nbsp;military&nbsp;had continued.
In the longer term, the Pentagon is eager to deepen engagement with&nbsp;China&nbsp;on broader strategic issues, particularly its nuclear weapons build up, but has signalled difficulties ahead.
"It&nbsp;remains&nbsp;unclear how the (Chinese) leadership&nbsp;and&nbsp;decision-makers accept the premise behind strategic stability, including the utility of crisis stability&nbsp;and&nbsp;communications," the Pentagon's annual&nbsp;China&nbsp;report said&nbsp;last&nbsp;November. "(Chinese) officials have been reluctant to engage on nuclear, cyberspace,&nbsp;and&nbsp;space issues&nbsp;as it pertains to strategic risk reduction in official or unofficial&nbsp;dialogue, particularly in&nbsp;defence&nbsp;channels."
In&nbsp;Singapore&nbsp;this&nbsp;month, General&nbsp;Li&nbsp;told an audience of regional counterparts&nbsp;and&nbsp;scholars that&nbsp;China&nbsp;remained open to a&nbsp;military&nbsp;relationship but the "fundamental principle" had to be mutual respect.
Without that, he said, "then our communications will&nbsp;not&nbsp;be productive".
&nbsp;
(Reporting By Greg Torode in Hong Kong&nbsp;and&nbsp;Yew Lun Tian in&nbsp;Beijing; Additional reporting by Idrees Ali&nbsp;and&nbsp;Phil Stewart in Washington. Editing by Gerry Doyle)

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