By Matt Spetalnick&nbsp;and&nbsp;Steve Holland
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The&nbsp;Biden&nbsp;administration&nbsp;is&nbsp;pressing&nbsp;ahead&nbsp;with a&nbsp;concerted&nbsp;effort&nbsp;to&nbsp;strike&nbsp;a&nbsp;&ldquo;grand&nbsp;bargain&rdquo;&nbsp;in the&nbsp;Middle&nbsp;East&nbsp;that&nbsp;includes&nbsp;normalization&nbsp;of&nbsp;relations&nbsp;between&nbsp;Israel&nbsp;and&nbsp;Saudi&nbsp;Arabia,&nbsp;calculating&nbsp;that the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;could&nbsp;reap&nbsp;big&nbsp;rewards&nbsp;if it&nbsp;can&nbsp;overcome&nbsp;steep&nbsp;obstacles.
President Joe&nbsp;Biden&rsquo;s aides have made this diplomatic push a foreign policy priority despite varying degrees of skepticism by experts on whether the timing, conditions&nbsp;and&nbsp;current regional leadership are right for a mega-deal that&nbsp;could&nbsp;reshape the geopolitics of the&nbsp;Middle&nbsp;East.
This marks a dramatic reversal for a president who had spent much of his term shying away from deeper diplomatic involvement in the region&rsquo;s troubles, raising questions about why he has committed to such a challenging goal, what he stands to gain&nbsp;and&nbsp;whether he might end up paying too high a price.
A bid to broker&nbsp;relations&nbsp;between&nbsp;longtime foes&nbsp;Israel&nbsp;and&nbsp;Saudi&nbsp;Arabia&nbsp;is the centerpiece of complex negotiations that involve discussions of&nbsp;U.S. security guarantees&nbsp;and&nbsp;civilian nuclear help sought by Riyadh as well as&nbsp;Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, according to people familiar with matter.
While&nbsp;U.S. officials insist any breakthrough is far away, they privately tout the potential benefits, including removing a possible flashpoint in the Arab-Israeli conflict, strengthening the regional bulwark against Iran&nbsp;and&nbsp;countering China&rsquo;s inroads in the Gulf.&nbsp;Biden&nbsp;would also score a foreign policy win as he seeks re-election in November 2024.
&ldquo;There&rsquo;s a lot that&nbsp;could&nbsp;go wrong, but if it happens it&nbsp;could&nbsp;be a crowning foreign policy achievement,&rdquo; said Jonathan Panikoff, the&nbsp;U.S. government&rsquo;s former deputy national intelligence officer on the&nbsp;Middle&nbsp;East, now at the Atlantic Council.
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY?
Though the timetable remains uncertain,&nbsp;Biden&rsquo;s aides believe there may be a critical window to craft a deal before the presidential campaign consumes his agenda, sources say.
But&nbsp;U.S. officials acknowledge there are so many stumbling blocks that they have no guarantee of success.&nbsp;Israel-Saudi&nbsp;negotiations have been conducted with&nbsp;Biden&rsquo;s emissaries as go-betweens.
&ldquo;We are actively talking,&rdquo; one&nbsp;U.S. official said on condition of anonymity. "But there's not even a set of principles on what an agreement would look like right now.&rdquo;
Even so,&nbsp;Biden&rsquo;s aides have begun briefing key lawmakers, say people familiar with the discussions. The focus is on&nbsp;Biden&rsquo;s fellow Democrats who have condemned&nbsp;Saudi&nbsp;Arabia&nbsp;over human rights but whose support would be needed if any agreement requires congressional approval.
The confluence of elements driving the&nbsp;administration&nbsp;includes&nbsp;a sense of urgency over China&rsquo;s&nbsp;effort&nbsp;to gain a strategic foothold in&nbsp;Saudi&nbsp;Arabia&nbsp;and&nbsp;other Gulf states&nbsp;and&nbsp;a&nbsp;U.S. desire to heal ties with Riyadh, which&nbsp;Biden&nbsp;once vowed to make a &ldquo;pariah.&rdquo;
Bringing together military powerhouses&nbsp;Israel&nbsp;and&nbsp;Saudi&nbsp;Arabia&nbsp;could&nbsp;help formalize cooperation against Iran, a mutual foe Washington wants to contain.
The&nbsp;administration&nbsp;is also looking to reassert regional leadership to keep&nbsp;Saudi&nbsp;Arabia&nbsp;and&nbsp;other Gulf oil states from drifting further away from&nbsp;efforts to isolate energy-producing Russia over the war in Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter.
In addition,&nbsp;normalization&nbsp;would appeal to pro-Israel&nbsp;voters in the election&nbsp;and&nbsp;make it harder for Republicans to attack him over fraught&nbsp;relations&nbsp;with&nbsp;Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Though foreign policy rarely sways&nbsp;U.S. elections,&nbsp;Biden, facing a re-election fight against Republican&nbsp;former president Donald Trump, may be thinking of his legacy.
&ldquo;It would be a&nbsp;big&nbsp;deal but the question is how much&nbsp;Biden&nbsp;is willing to pay for it,&rdquo; said Aaron David Miller, a former&nbsp;Middle&nbsp;East&nbsp;negotiator now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
SAUDI&nbsp;DEMANDS
Among the challenges would be satisfying Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the&nbsp;Saudi&nbsp;de-facto ruler known as MbS.
He is reported to be seeking a NATO-style treaty requiring the&nbsp;U.S. to defend the kingdom if attacked,&nbsp;and&nbsp;also wants advanced weapons&nbsp;and&nbsp;assistance for a civilian nuclear program.
From the&nbsp;Israelis, the&nbsp;Saudis demand&nbsp;significant concessions to the Palestinians to keep alive prospects for statehood, something&nbsp;Biden&nbsp;is also pushing for but which Netanyahu&rsquo;s&nbsp;far-right government has shown little willingness to grant.
An upgraded&nbsp;U.S.-Saudi&nbsp;relationship would face resistance in Congress, where many are critical of MbS over the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi&nbsp;and&nbsp;Riyadh's intervention in Yemen.
&ldquo;I am certainly very wary of a defense treaty that binds the United States to come to the defense of a&nbsp;Saudi&nbsp;government that has proved to act incredibly irresponsibly in the region,&rdquo; Senator Chris Murphy told Reuters.
Murphy, a Democrat on the Senate Foreign&nbsp;Relations&nbsp;Committee, said he favors&nbsp;Israeli-Saudi&nbsp;normalization&nbsp;and&nbsp;is open to reviewing any broader agreement but would not be easily convinced.
However, Jared Kushner, who under Trump spearheaded three Arab-Israeli deals known as the Abraham Accords, has urged his father-in-law to consider supporting&nbsp;Biden&rsquo;s&nbsp;effort&nbsp;as vindication for Trump&rsquo;s&nbsp;Middle&nbsp;East&nbsp;record, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
For Netanyahu, diplomatic&nbsp;relations&nbsp;with&nbsp;Saudi&nbsp;Arabia, custodian of Islam&rsquo;s two holiest shrines, would be a long-sought prize that&nbsp;could&nbsp;encourage other Muslim states to follow suit&nbsp;and&nbsp;also pave the way for expanding&nbsp;Israel's economic integration in the broader&nbsp;Middle&nbsp;East.
But Netanyahu's&nbsp;coalition would likely resist anything more than modest gestures to Palestinians, which&nbsp;could&nbsp;trip up any&nbsp;normalization&nbsp;deal.
Biden&rsquo;s talks with Netanyahu at the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday&nbsp;could&nbsp;provide an indication of how far he is prepared to go.
Like MbS, Netanyahu has done little to dispel the impression he might prefer to deal with a second Trump presidency, raising the possibility they&nbsp;could&nbsp;wait for the election outcome.
If the clock runs&nbsp;out, the&nbsp;administration&nbsp;may have to settle for a more limited deal or else try to agree on the outlines of a future accord, experts say.
The idea would then be to iron out details later if&nbsp;Biden&nbsp;wins a second term.
&nbsp;
(Reporting by Matt Spetalnick&nbsp;and&nbsp;Steve Holland, additional reporting by Patricia Zengerle in Washington&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dan Williams in Jerusalem; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

you might like

Analysis-US sees big gains if Mideast mega-deal sealed - but at what price?